Monte Carlo: real_hop
mission real_hop · fidelity high · 64 runs
87.5 %success
77.2–93.5 %95 % interval
93.8 %vehicle recovered
5.5 mCEP50
28.3 mCEP90
66.2 m99 % ellipse, major
Landing dispersion at the target
Local east/north offsets of every touchdown from the
target. Dashed circle: target radius (50 m). Solid ellipse: 99 %
bivariate-normal fit; dotted: 50 %. Mean offset 6.3 m E,
3.5 m N.
Distributions
Metrics (percentiles)
| metric | p1 | p5 | p50 | p95 | p99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fuel_remaining_kg | 0.0 | 85.4 | 132.6 | 160.9 | 166.0 |
| max_cargo_g | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 94.3 |
| touchdown_vz_mps | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| touchdown_vh_mps | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| flight_time_s | 442.3 | 583.8 | 590.4 | 601.3 | 832.9 |
| landing_error_m | 1.3 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 124.3 | 1,671,031.8 |
Outcomes
| outcome | runs | share |
|---|---|---|
| landed | 56 | 87.5 % |
| missed_target | 4 | 6.2 % |
| terrain_impact | 3 | 4.7 % |
| tipped_over | 1 | 1.6 % |
Sensitivity
Spearman rank correlation of each dispersed parameter with miss distance and with failure. |ρ| above 0.25 (2/√n) is marked significant.
| parameter | ρ miss | ρ failure | |
|---|---|---|---|
world.wind.speed | +0.78 | +0.54 | significant |
world.temperature_offset | -0.32 | -0.14 | significant |
vehicle.mass.dry | -0.30 | -0.11 | significant |
vehicle.engine.throttle_tau | -0.26 | -0.07 | significant |
vehicle.mass.dry_cg_z | +0.21 | +0.25 | |
vehicle.engine.misalignment_deg[1] | -0.19 | +0.06 | |
vehicle.cargo.mass | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
vehicle.engine.misalignment_deg[0] | +0.05 | +0.18 | |
world.atmosphere_model.f107 | -0.15 | +0.17 | |
vehicle.engine.thrust_vac | -0.17 | -0.05 | |
vehicle.engine.isp_vac | +0.12 | +0.14 | |
vehicle.rcs.thrust | -0.13 | -0.03 | |
world.wind.gust_max | -0.12 | -0.13 | |
vehicle.aero.cd_scale | +0.04 | +0.10 | |
vehicle.grid_fins.cn_alpha | +0.08 | -0.03 | |
world.wind.from_deg | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
world.wind.turbulence_severity | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Method
Each run samples the true vehicle and environment from the dispersion file; the flight software flies with the nominal vehicle, the forecast environment and the pre-flight ascent plan. Success probability uses the Wilson score interval. Ellipses assume a bivariate normal landing distribution. These are simulation results: model-form error is not included beyond the dispersed parameters (see docs/models).