Monte Carlo: real_hop_slosh
mission real_hop · fidelity high · 64 runs
87.5 %success
77.2–93.5 %95 % interval
95.3 %vehicle recovered
5.0 mCEP50
24.3 mCEP90
64.2 m99 % ellipse, major
Landing dispersion at the target
Local east/north offsets of every touchdown from the
target. Dashed circle: target radius (50 m). Solid ellipse: 99 %
bivariate-normal fit; dotted: 50 %. Mean offset 6.7 m E,
2.5 m N.
Distributions
Metrics (percentiles)
| metric | p1 | p5 | p50 | p95 | p99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fuel_remaining_kg | 0.0 | 85.8 | 132.7 | 159.8 | 166.8 |
| max_cargo_g | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 91.5 |
| touchdown_vz_mps | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| touchdown_vh_mps | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| flight_time_s | 566.8 | 583.1 | 590.4 | 601.3 | 836.7 |
| landing_error_m | 1.2 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 111.7 | 1,288,607.8 |
Outcomes
| outcome | runs | share |
|---|---|---|
| landed | 56 | 87.5 % |
| missed_target | 4 | 6.2 % |
| terrain_impact | 3 | 4.7 % |
| not_at_rest | 1 | 1.6 % |
Sensitivity
Spearman rank correlation of each dispersed parameter with miss distance and with failure. |ρ| above 0.25 (2/√n) is marked significant.
| parameter | ρ miss | ρ failure | |
|---|---|---|---|
world.wind.speed | +0.78 | +0.54 | significant |
vehicle.mass.dry_cg_z | +0.08 | +0.25 | |
vehicle.mass.dry | -0.18 | -0.11 | |
vehicle.engine.misalignment_deg[0] | -0.06 | +0.18 | |
vehicle.engine.misalignment_deg[1] | -0.18 | +0.06 | |
world.atmosphere_model.f107 | -0.08 | +0.17 | |
vehicle.aero.cd_scale | +0.16 | +0.10 | |
vehicle.engine.isp_vac | +0.14 | +0.14 | |
world.temperature_offset | -0.13 | -0.14 | |
world.wind.gust_max | +0.01 | -0.13 | |
vehicle.engine.thrust_vac | +0.10 | -0.05 | |
vehicle.engine.throttle_tau | -0.10 | -0.07 | |
vehicle.tanks.0.slosh_damping | -0.08 | -0.04 | |
vehicle.tanks.1.slosh_damping | -0.03 | -0.07 | |
vehicle.cargo.mass | -0.02 | +0.04 | |
vehicle.grid_fins.cn_alpha | -0.01 | -0.03 | |
world.wind.from_deg | -0.03 | +0.01 | |
vehicle.rcs.thrust | -0.01 | -0.03 | |
world.wind.turbulence_severity | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
vehicle.tanks.0.slosh | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
vehicle.tanks.1.slosh | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Method
Each run samples the true vehicle and environment from the dispersion file; the flight software flies with the nominal vehicle, the forecast environment and the pre-flight ascent plan. Success probability uses the Wilson score interval. Ellipses assume a bivariate normal landing distribution. These are simulation results: model-form error is not included beyond the dispersed parameters (see docs/models).